Monday, May 29, 2017

Future of Jobs and Jobs training - Pew report, OxfordMartin report,McKinsey report, bbc article

A collection of reports etc. read over the last few weeks on the future of work, education and impact on jobs.

First up, via Jane Hart's Modern Learning in the Workplace newletter, the Pew report on the future of jobs and jobs training.
The report is a longish read covering a range of concepts across 8 webpages. The overview on page one, introduces the challenges and discusses implications. The FIVE main themes are introduced and following pages expand on each. The themes are:
- Training ecosystems will evolve, with a mix of innovation in all education formats.
- Learners must cultivate 21st century skills, capabilities and attributes.
- New credentialing systems will arise as self-directed learning expands.
- Training and learning systems will NOT meet 21st century needs by 2026.
- Job? what jobs? Technological forces will fundamentally change work and the economic landscape.

Second, a report from the oxfordmartin group, on the future of employment, which is the source of the much quoted statistic on number of jobs that will be replaced by technology. The report tries to identify which jobs may be at risk. There is a  a good overview of how far computing has come and the progress made towards computerising non-routine cognitive tasks. The study identifies social intelligence, creativity and perception / manipulation as classes of algorithms able to replace humans in roles.
""The model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occupations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labour in production occupations, are at risk.
a substantial share of employment in service occupations, where most US job growth has occurred over the past decades (Autor and Dorn, 44 2013), are highly susceptible to computerisation.
Therefore, for workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.""

The third report is from McKinsey on technology jobs and the future of work. 60% of jobs will have 30% of activities that can be technically automatable. Highly skilled workers working with technology will benefit. Low skilled workers working with technology may experience wage pressure as there will be less demand for these occupations.

Lastly, a good overview via the BBC on how automation will affect you, summarising opinions from a range of experts on the topic. As always, the solution is education.  In the near future, people will have to put in 60% of their time working and  40% of time in learning. Fewer than 5% of jobs can be automated with existing technology but 60% of occupations could see up to 30% of tasks being done by machines. Robots should complement, not replace you. We need to learn how to work alongside robots. There will be an accompanying increase in demand for creative, social, interpersonal skills. 

All studies point to the importance of educational systems in preparing and re-training / re-skilling people.

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