The life cycle of markets - what does the data tell us about VET - AVETRA OctoberVET presentation notes

 Dr. Don Zoellner, Northern Institute of Charles Darwin University, presents at an OctoberVET session. 

He talks on the Australian market-led VET approach and asks the question "Is the market still what's needed now"? Highly topical as Aotearoa New Zealand has, through the the Reform of Vocational Education (RoVE) moved away from the market-driven model for VET education (more on the Aotearoa NZ reforms and its implications in this book). 

Based on a recent journal article - on mature VET market 

The presentation based on several working hypothesis - VET markets are not an aspiration that are yet to be achieved; introduction of VET markets exemplifies successful public policy implementation; and just because one disagrees with the policy does not mean that it was implemented unsuccessfully.

VET quasi-markets have followed a predictable life cycle and are mature; providers require new thinking about how to deal with market revival or have post-maturity options. Unfettered competitive markets are only one option. Now that Australian VET quasi markets are in the decline phase, it might be better to look at other options as system optimisation or as a public good.

Ran through the key features of the VET quasi-market - choice, competition, new public management, heavy regulation and national consistency and 30 years of bipartisan support.

Summarised the corporate market life cycle for Australian VET through birth, growth, maturity, revival and decline. 

Shared findings from analysis of the smallest 5 Australian VET markets - Northern Territory, ACT, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia - 20% of Australian population and provided details on the method and data sources. 

Findings included the existence of 8 types of business entities offering VET ranging from private, incorporated, government, public companies, sole traders and trusts. Private companies just over 50%, 76% are for-profit entities, not for profits range from 21% to 40%. The market has been dynamic with over 1/2 of RTOs registered from 1992, having left the market. There are relatively smaller numbers being registered over time but 40% of those registered from 2004 are still in the market. Not for profit sector RTOs exhibit longevity, indicating maturity of the market.

Reduced funding has caused the it to offer similar qualifications, across 11 training packages. 85% of students are enrolled in the top 15 training packages but there are some regional differences with primary industries and mining higher in NT and WA but ICT, retail and public services higher in ACT.

Concluded the market might now be in decline and not much shift in the mature RTOs who concentrate on those qualifications with high margins. Low margins means high volumes required. Issues of choice for learners is perhaps now not being met as RTOs shift to markets that pay.

Concludes that repetitive application of marketisation has blocked consideration of more promising reforms to public service delivery. System optimisation rarely achieved through competition. Competition increases contestation rather than the best outcomes to the public. Oligopolies emerge rather than monopolies! There are inefficiencies due to high regulation and duplication. Governments serve communities by creating public value and this requires the acceptance of diversity and the rejection of market-non-market dualisms. Public value management one post-market option to shift the market across to revival stage.

Interesting presentation and something to follow up with regards to the Aotearoa NZ context.